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ALWAYS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
A WORK IN PROGRESS
ALWAYS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
A WORK IN PROGRESS
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Forecast Principles
A demand side approach to forecasting is fundamentally different from the econometric modeling that dominates the forecasting world. We begin with the presumption, which we think has been theoretically and empirically validated over the past century, that the economy responds to aggregate demand. We then assess the likely influences on demand going forward and apply estimates of the multipliers to each influence.
Our explanation uses mathematics, but is not an equation or formula, because the assumptions that underly the models are the core of the understanding, not the mechanical devices used to manipulate the assumptions.
For a further look into Demand Side forecasting principles, look here.
Our explanation uses mathematics, but is not an equation or formula, because the assumptions that underly the models are the core of the understanding, not the mechanical devices used to manipulate the assumptions.
For a further look into Demand Side forecasting principles, look here.
Unemployment trending toward pessimistic
Employment likewise trending toward pessimistic
Tools and Data
Forecast Archive
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2010
(47)
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January
(14)
- John Mauldin
- Good Debt Charts From Zero Hedge and Rogoff
- The Pragmatic Capitalist's Ultimate Guide to Predi...
- Doug Noland sees a bubble year
- David Kotok
- Fed's Hoenig warns against moon creatures and infl...
- FOMC Minutes: Expect Slow Economic Recovery
- Byron Wien for 2007 and 2008
- Icap Futures Options 2010 Newsletter
- Blackstone's Byron Wien's 10 surprises for 2010
- More on Byron Wien's 10 surprises
- Goldman Sachs Ten Questions annotated
- PIMCO's McCulley
- Fed's Duke on the Economic Outlook
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January
(14)
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