The bullets below are some of the indicators of the slide to recession. They are taken from and are more completely described at RGE Monitor, Nouriel Roubini's blog:
- Initial claims for unemployment benefits now at their recession level
- Durable goods order falling
- Consumer confidence still plunging
- Oil prices in the $90 to 100 range
- Retail sales falling in real terms during the holiday season
- The worst housing recession since the Great Depression getting worse
- Non-residential commercial real estate in serious trouble
- Forward looking indicators of economic activity (Richmond Fed, Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, Index of Leading Indicators, ECRI leading indicators index) signaling weakness ahead
- Corporate earnings falling
- Interbank spreads (Libor vs. policy rates, TED spreads, BOR/OIS spreads, etc.) still at very elevated levels in spite of massive central bank injections
- Bond yields curve and credit spreads pricing recession ahead.
- Credit markets dead
- Unraveling of the $350 billion SIVs and collapse of the Super-Siv scheme forcing banks to bring back on balance sheet SIVs assets (
- Signs of sharply increasing default rates
- Corporate risk spreads sharply up
- Monoliner bond insurance firms all under review for downgrade
- Massive further losses and writedowns by financial institutions
- Pressures, losses and runs on non-bank financial institutions “the shadow banking system” (hedge funds, money market funds, state funds, investment banks, SIVs and conduits)
- US dollar falling and most of the financing of the still massive US current account deficit coming from central banks and SWFs, not private sector investors.
- Geostrategic risks rising
We're sticking to our October 25 call that the economy is already in recession.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment